Back in the old days, computer processing was centralized in large mainframe computers. "Dumb" terminals with very little processing power were used to access the mainframe and display data to the end user. As time passed, the mainframe/terminal configuration was eventually replaced by PCs that were able to handle complex processing.
With the push towards mobile computing, history is now repeating itself. Google Chrome OS, which is designed for low-powered netbooks, is based on centralizing processing and data storage in the cloud. Removing the burden of processing from netbooks will allow these computers to run low-power, energy efficient CPUs. Additionally, storing data in the cloud, rather than on the netbook itself, allows these computers to keep a small form factor which aids in mobility.
I’m always amazed by the innovative ways in which Google uses the raw data it collects. The New York Times mentioned something really interesting about how Google used recorded voices to create a better speech recognition system:
In 2007… [Google] began offering 800-GOOG-411, a free directory assistance service that interprets spoken requests. It allowed Google to collect the voices of millions of people so it could get better at recognizing spoken English.
A year later, Google released a search-by-voice system that was as good as those that took other companies years to build.
ZDNet is reporting that the online-only sales model for the Nexus One may be responsible for missed targets:
Goldman Sachs reduced sales estimates from 3.5 million units in 2010 to a mere 1 million, and only 2 million in 2011 if they launch a second phone, do a lot more marketing themselves, and decide to sell it in retail stores too.
UPDATE: 74 days after its launch, 135,000 Nexus One devices have been sold. By comparison, after an initial 74 days the Motorola Droid sold 1.05 million and the iPhone sold 1.0 million.
First off, from what I’ve seen so far Google Wave is an absolutely ingenious product. It blends different technologies together to create a very robust collaboration environment. The Google team believes that Wave could eventually replace email. However, I’d argue that Google Wave will be more of a niche product due it’s high-level of complexity.
What is Google Wave?
Watching the following presentation is the easiest way to answer this question, but essentially it’s a mash-up of email, instant messaging (IM) and wikis. Online collaboration and communication are the primary functions of Google Wave.
In the enterprise context, Wave could play a very important role in capturing collective intelligence and facilitating communication as well as being used as a collaboration tool. Obviously, these are all very important things which many companies currently have trouble doing. Current technologies such as SharePoint offer some tools for accomplishing these tasks but are generally not being utilized.
Who will use Google Wave?
I believe that the Google Wave users will be tech savvy people who work in a project based environment. IT project teams will be the biggest user group and will use Wave to collaborate on creating requirements, design documentation and project plans.
I believe that Wave’s high complexity will prevent it from being widely adopted by enterprises and consumers as a whole.
If we look at other technologies such as Twitter, email, blogs and wikis we can observe an important trend. Technologies with low levels of complexity tend to be more widely adopted than technologies with higher levels of complexity. Figure 1.0 is a back-of-the-envelope estimation of complexity levels and adoption rates of various communication technologies.
Why is this the case? Lower levels of complexity create a larger pool of potential users because there are more people who have the technical abilities required to use the technology. More users increase the positive network effects of a given technology which further drives adoption rates.
I believe that Google Wave’s high complexity level means that the pool of potential users will be small—limiting adoption rates. I believe Wave will be a successful niche product. Will Google be satisfied with that? Considering they have publicly mused that Wave may one day “replace email”, I think not.
